The rise of Reform UK has sent shockwaves through the British political establishment. Once dismissed as a fringe movement, the party has now seized hundreds of council seats, won its first mayoralties, and is polling ahead of the Conservatives and, in some cases, even Labour10211. The question that looms over Westminster is not just how to respond to Reform UK, but when-if ever-the Conservative and Labour parties will acknowledge a fundamental truth: Reform UK is, in large part, their own creation.

The Genesis of Reform UK: A Tale of Disaffection

Reform UK’s origins are rooted in the political turbulence of the 2010s. Founded by Nigel Farage as the Brexit Party in 2018, the party capitalized on the growing frustration with the political establishment’s handling of Brexit139. Farage, already a veteran of right-wing populism through his leadership of UKIP, positioned the new party as the authentic voice of Brexit voters, many of whom felt betrayed by both the Conservatives and Labour.

The Brexit Party’s success in the 2019 European Parliament elections-winning 29 seats-was the first clear sign that a significant portion of the electorate felt unrepresented by the mainstream parties13. After Brexit, the party rebranded as Reform UK, shifting its focus to broader issues of governance, anti-lockdown sentiment, and systemic political reform112. But the underlying driver remained the same: a sense of abandonment and disillusionment among voters who once formed the bedrock of the two-party system.

How the Conservatives Paved the Way

The Conservative Party’s role in the creation of Reform UK is both direct and indirect. The most obvious connection is the steady stream of defections from the Tories to Reform UK, including high-profile figures like Lee Anderson and Ann Widdecombe19. But the deeper story is one of policy drift and broken promises.

• Brexit Disillusionment: Many Conservative voters felt the party failed to deliver on the spirit of Brexit, particularly as negotiations dragged on and compromises accumulated112. This opened the door for Farage’s populist messaging.

• Rightward Drift and Internal Divisions: The Conservatives’ attempts to balance traditional conservatism with populist rhetoric left many voters dissatisfied. For some, the party was not radical enough on issues like immigration and national sovereignty; for others, it had abandoned pragmatic governance in favor of culture war politics12.

• Failure to Address Economic Grievances: Despite promises, the Conservatives struggled to deliver meaningful improvements to the lives of working-class voters in the so-called “Red Wall” constituencies. The result was a vacuum into which Reform UK could step, promising lower taxes and a smaller state12.

Labour’s Complicity: Losing Touch With Its Base

Labour’s contribution to Reform UK’s rise is less direct but equally significant. The party’s shift towards metropolitan, university-educated voters left many traditional working-class supporters feeling alienated512. These voters, concentrated in the North and Midlands, were the same ones who had swung to Brexit and then to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019.

• Brexit Betrayal: Labour’s ambiguous stance on Brexit-first supporting a second referendum, then pledging to “get Brexit done”-left many voters feeling the party was out of touch with their priorities5.

• Perceived Elitism: The party’s embrace of progressive social issues, while resonating with younger and urban voters, further distanced it from its traditional base. Reform UK has exploited this gap, positioning itself as the champion of “ordinary working men and women”12.

• Failure to Offer a Credible Alternative: For disillusioned voters, Labour’s inability to present a clear, compelling vision for post-Brexit Britain made Reform UK’s populism more attractive512.

The Reform UK Phenomenon: Protest or Realignment?

Some commentators initially dismissed Reform UK as a protest party-a “mayfly” destined to fade once its immediate grievances were addressed4. However, the party’s recent successes suggest something deeper is at work.

• Local Election Breakthroughs: In the 2025 local elections, Reform UK won over 660 council seats, took control of 10 councils, and made significant inroads in both Conservative and Labour strongholds108. Notably, the party’s victories were not confined to traditionally right-leaning areas; it also made gains in Labour heartlands like Doncaster510.

• By-Election Upsets: Reform UK’s by-election win in Runcorn and Helsby, ousting Labour, signaled that its appeal extends beyond disaffected Tories108.

• Polling Surge: Reform UK is now regularly polling ahead of the Conservatives and, in some cases, even Labour, with some surveys putting it at 25% nationally211. This is not just a protest vote; it points to a realignment in British politics.

As Professor John Curtice has observed, the party is “gaining traction in a unique region of Britain that previously disrupted the political landscape a decade ago by supporting Brexit, and it appears to be doing so once more”5.

Why the Main Parties Still Don’t Get It

Despite these warning signs, both the Conservatives and Labour have been slow to recognize their role in Reform UK’s rise-or to adapt their strategies accordingly.

• Denial and Complacency: Many in both parties have dismissed Reform UK as a temporary phenomenon, underestimating the depth of voter disillusionment411.

• Internal Divisions: The Conservatives, in particular, are riven by debates over whether to move further right to recapture Reform voters or to reclaim the center ground. Talk of a merger between the two parties has surfaced, but less than half of either party’s voters support such a move, reflecting deep-seated mistrust and differing visions for the future62.

• Labour’s Blind Spot: Labour, buoyed by recent national victories, risks complacency. The party’s leadership has publicly downplayed the threat, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting likening the contest between Reform and the Conservatives to “Alien vs. Predator”11. Yet the loss of seats in traditional Labour areas should serve as a wake-up call.

The Voters’ Verdict: A Crisis of Representation

At its core, the rise of Reform UK is a symptom of a broader crisis of political representation. Voters who once identified strongly with Labour or the Conservatives now feel that neither party speaks for them512.

• Brexit and Beyond: The Brexit referendum was a catalyst, but the underlying issues-economic insecurity, cultural anxiety, and distrust of elites-have not been addressed by either main party512.

• Populist Appeal: Reform UK’s populist messaging, focused on immigration, national sovereignty, and opposition to “woke” culture, resonates with voters who feel left behind by globalization and social change12.

• Disillusionment with the System: The party’s calls for electoral reform and attacks on “vested interests” tap into a widespread sense that the political system is rigged against ordinary people12.

When Will the Wake-Up Call Come?

The evidence suggests that neither the Conservatives nor Labour can afford to ignore Reform UK any longer. The party’s rapid rise, fueled by voters disillusioned with both main parties, represents a fundamental challenge to the two-party system.

• Conservatives at a Crossroads: The Tories face an existential dilemma. Moving further right risks alienating centrist voters, while failing to address Reform UK’s criticisms could see more defections and electoral losses26.

• Labour’s Vulnerability: Labour’s recent losses in traditional strongholds should serve as a warning. The party cannot rely on demographic change and urban support alone; it must reconnect with its working-class base or risk further erosion to Reform UK57.

• The Merger Debate: Calls for a “coming together” of the Conservatives and Reform UK have grown louder, but there is little appetite among voters for such a merger26. The two parties are divided not just by personalities but by fundamentally different visions of conservatism and populism.

Conclusion: Reform UK-A Monster of Westminster’s Own Making

Reform UK is not an alien force that has invaded British politics from the outside. It is the product of years of neglect, broken promises, and political drift by both the Conservatives and Labour. The party’s success is a mirror held up to the political establishment, reflecting the anger and frustration of millions of voters who feel abandoned by the old order.

The question is not whether Reform UK will endure-the party’s staying power is still debated4-but whether the Conservatives and Labour will recognize their own complicity in its rise. Until they do, Reform UK will continue to thrive, feeding off the disaffection that Westminster itself has sown.

The wake-up call has already sounded. Whether the main parties choose to answer it remains to be seen.