The United Kingdom is undergoing a profound demographic transformation. The population is not only growing, but it is also aging at an unprecedented rate. With nearly one in five Britons now aged 65 or over and projections showing this proportion will only rise, the question of how to sustain the economy, public services, and social care for an older society is more pressing than ever. In this context, it seems logical to argue that the UK needs immigrants. But is the answer so straightforward?

The UK’s Aging Population: The Numbers

Over the past 40 years, the number of people aged 50 and over in England has increased by nearly 7 million-a 47% rise. The number of those aged 65 and over has grown by more than 3.5 million, a 52% increase, and now stands at over 10 million, or 18% of the population1. The fastest-growing segment is those aged 80 and over, expected to more than double to over 6 million within the next four decades1. Projections suggest that by 2072, 27% of the UK population could be aged 65 or over, up from 19% today and just 13% in 19729.

This demographic shift is even more pronounced in rural and coastal areas, where one in three people are already aged 65 or over1. Meanwhile, the population under 20 is expected to shrink, further skewing the age balance1.

Economic and Social Implications

The aging population brings significant challenges:

• Rising Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR): There are currently about 33 people aged 65+ for every 100 people aged 20-64, a ratio set to rise further9. This means fewer working-age people supporting more retirees.

• Pressure on Health and Social Care: Older people typically require more complex and costly healthcare. The NHS and social care systems are already feeling the strain, with demand for services rising9.

• Labour Market Shortages: Sectors like healthcare and social care are experiencing acute shortages, partly due to low wages and challenging working conditions8.

The Role of Immigration

Population Growth and Workforce Support

Immigration has become the primary driver of UK population growth. In 2023, the UK population reached 68.3 million, with net migration accounting for the majority of the increase8. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects the population could reach 72.5 million by 2032, mainly due to net migration4.

Immigrants are typically younger and more likely to be of working age. This helps slow the increase in the old age dependency ratio and fills critical gaps in the workforce, especially in sectors like health and social care. For example, around 29% of NHS nurses in England are from overseas, and one in five NHS staff overall are foreign-born9.

“Immigration is essential for maintaining a workforce in critical sectors, such as social care. Without immigration, the country would face an even greater crisis in providing essential services to the elderly and vulnerable.”

• Rob McNeil, Migration Observatory 8

Economic Contributions

Migrants contribute more to health and social care services in both financial resources and labour than they consume, according to the Migration Advisory Committee9. This is particularly significant as the native working-age population shrinks and the demand for public services grows.

Limitations and Challenges of Relying on Immigration

Temporary Relief, Not a Permanent Solution

While immigration can slow population aging, it cannot prevent it. Over time, immigrants themselves age, settle, and require the same services as the native elderly population. Successive generations of immigrants tend to have fewer children, so the demographic effect diminishes35.

To maintain the current working-age to elderly ratio solely through immigration would require unsustainably high levels-around 1 million net migrants per year, leading to a population of 120 million by 2050, which is neither practical nor desirable for social, political, and economic reasons5.

Social and Political Pressures

High levels of immigration bring their own challenges:

• Housing and Infrastructure: The UK already faces a housing crisis, and additional population growth increases pressure on housing, schools, and healthcare systems8.

• Social Cohesion: Increased diversity requires investment in integration and social cohesion strategies. Failure to manage these can lead to social tensions, as seen in recent incidents8.

• Political Backlash: Calls for stricter immigration controls remain strong, with some politicians advocating for legally binding caps on visas4.

A Balanced Approach: Immigration and Beyond

The Need for a Multi-Pronged Strategy

Immigration alone is not a panacea for the challenges of an aging population. The UK must also:

• Invest in Training and Productivity: Improving homegrown skills and labour market mobility is essential to reduce reliance on migrant labour5.

• Reform Health and Social Care: Addressing low wages and poor working conditions in care sectors could attract more domestic workers, though this would increase costs8.

• Promote Age-Friendly Communities: Supporting older people to live independently and contribute to their communities can reduce pressure on services1.

• Encourage Higher Birth Rates: Policies that support families, such as childcare and parental leave, could help slow the decline in the working-age population.

Conclusion

The UK’s rapidly aging population creates a compelling case for continued immigration, especially to support the workforce and sustain essential public services. However, immigration is not a permanent fix. It can buy time, slow the pace of demographic change, and fill immediate labour shortages, but it cannot fully offset the structural challenges of an aging society.

A sustainable response requires a balanced approach: thoughtful immigration policy, investment in domestic skills, social care reform, and strategies for social cohesion and integration. Only by addressing all these areas together can the UK hope to navigate the demographic challenges ahead.

As the debate continues, one thing is clear: the question is not simply whether the UK needs immigrants, but how best to manage demographic change in a way that is economically, socially, and politically sustainable for all.

Barrister Magazine